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Post by weekendhackers on Apr 27, 2015 23:42:06 GMT
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Post by Annihilation Nation on Apr 28, 2015 1:14:50 GMT
Gotta do some predictions
Group 1: McIlroy, Horschel, Snedeker Dufner - They are calling this one of the groups of death and I agree. I am tempted to pick Snedeker in this group but he hasn't been playing well as of late. I will go with McIlroy.
Group 2: Spieth, Westwood, Every, Illonen - Spieth is the definate favorite here and I will pick him to move on
Group 3: Stenson, Haas, Todd, Senden - I will go with an upset and pick Bill Haas here
Group 4: Watson, Oosthuizen, Bradley, Jimenez - I think this is an underrated group. Temping to pick Oosthuizen but Bubba is just too good so I will pick him to advance.
Group 5: Furyk, Kaymer, Jaidee, Coetzee - I think this is a weak group. It's good to be the bottom two seeds here as they have a shot. I don't think any of these players would sniff the round of 16 if they weren't all together in this group. I guess if I have to I will pick Furyk.
Group 6: Rose, Palmer, Lahiri, Leishman - Rose is by far the cream of the crop in this group. My pick is him.
Group 7: Day, Z Johnson, Grace, Hoffman - tough group from top to bottom. I just can't quite pick an underdog but each of these players could advance from this group. I will pick Day.
Group 8: D Johnson, Dubuisson, Schwartzel, M Jones - I eventually need to pick a big upset but I will go with Dubuisson here.
Group 9: Scott, Kirk, Casey, Molinari - This is the group where I see one of the lower seeding winning it. Since Molinari is iffy with injuries coming in I will go with Paul Casey to win this group
Group 10: Garcia, Donaldson, Wiesberger, Fleetwood - I am tempted to pick Wiesberger here but I will be a wuss and go with Sergio to win the group.
Group 11: Walker, Poulter, Simpson, Woodland - It's really tough that Walker drew Poulter as the 2 seed - I am gonna have to go with the crazy Ian Poulter here.
Group 12: Holmes, Koepka, Henley, Warren - I actually consider Holmes as the 3rd most likely player to win this group. I am torn between Koepka and Henley. Henley has been playing better than Koepka. Oh what the heck I will go with Henley.
Group 13: Fowler, McDowell, Lowry, English - this is another group where I don't think any of these players make it out of a tougher group. It would be tempting to pick English but he hasn't been playing well enough. I don't want to pick anyone here but I guess I have to. I will pick the lame Shane Lowry.
Group 14: Kuchar, Mahan, Gallagher, B Martin - Interesting group, Mahan won this a couple of years ago but Kuchar is starting to get hot. I briefly though of taking Martin but I will take Kuchar here
Game 15: Reed, Moore, Willett, Sullivan - It's very tempting to take Moore or Willett and either could pull it off - reluctantly I will take Patrick doughboy Reed.
Game 16: Matsuyama, Na, Luiten, Levy - None of the others are inspiring of an upset. I will take Matsuyama from this relatively weak group.
Round of 16
McIlroy vs Matsuyama - Great matchup if it happenes. I will go with McIlroy here
Dubuisson vs Casey - I will go with Dubuisson here
Watson vs Lowry - Lowry's cinderella run ends here. Bubba all the way
Furyk vs Henley - no way am I taking Furyk here. Henley by default
Spieth vs Reed - they should not have to play this soon but I am going with Spieth
Day vs Garcia - I am going with Day here in extra holes
Bill Haas vs Kuchar - if Kuchar makes it this far I am going with him here
Rose vs Poulter - another matchup that should not happen this soon but I will take Rose
Quarterfinals
McIlroy vs Dubuisson - in an upset I am taking Dubuisson
Watson vs Henley - gotta go with Bubba again here
Spieth vs Day - this matchup should happen until at least the semi's. Spieth won at Augusta and will win again here.
Kuchar vs Rose - Can I pick both of them to lose. I will go with Rose because I think it's more likely that Kuchar won't be in this spot anyway
Semifinals
Dubuisson vs Watson - I don't feel good that either will actually be here. Dubuisson's run ends here. Bubba to the final
Spieth vs Rose - No one beats Jordan, this one is a 4 up win
Finals
Watson vs Spieth - the last two Masters champs battle it out but only one can win and that one is the great Jordan Spieth
Spieth is the champion
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Post by Annihilation Nation on Apr 28, 2015 1:44:37 GMT
I guess I will have to have fun with the power rankings again
1) Jordan Spieth - well I picked him to win so this is perfect for me.
2) Hideki Maysuyama - I am not sure of his match play history but this is a few spots too high.
3) Henrik Stenson - can't pick him this high or probably not nearly this high
4) Louis Oosthuizen - my gosh this is high for him with this kind of field. He would be lucky just to get to the round of 16.
5) Jim Furyk - I wonder what what Rob Bolton is smoking this week. No way does Furyk go this far.
6) Ian Poulter - ranked about right but he should be ahead of at least 2 that are ahead of him.
7) Paul Casey - a bit too highly ranked. I am really surprised by these rankings so far.
8) Jason Day - too low plain and simple. Why would he be ranked behind some of these guys.
9) Sergio Garcia - Fair ranking but where are some of the other golfers at.
10) Dustin Johnson - Big Nose comes in ranked about right.
11) Marc Leishman - really, as I said Bolton is high this week.
12) Russell Henley - I actually agree with this eventhough it's fair to consider this too high.
13) Shane Lowry - I had him in a big upset advancing to the round of 16 but this is still surprising to see him this high.
14) Matt Kuchar - Possibly a little low but his track record of playing well is short of late.
15) Rory McIlroy - I am sorry but #15, come on, this ranking is way too low.
16) Patrick Reed - can't argue with this, probably ranked too low.
17) Bubba Watson - Just like McIlroy way too low.
18) Ryan Moore - probably too high but I seriously considered taking him to make the round of 16. Has a history of good match play.
19) Brendon Todd - in a regular tourney this is ok but with this kind of field he is too high.
20) Graeme McDowell - About right.
I am not ranking the entire top 64 but will thrown in some notables
25) Justin Rose - This is kind of a surprise. I don't get this low ranking either.
30) Adam Scott - very low but I agree with this.
39) Martin Kaymer - what is interesting is that he disappeared after his big win at the PGA Championship a few years ago. Last year was nice but he is pulling the houdini act again. Maybe he is a once out of every 5 year type player.
43) Victor Dubuisson - I can't believe he is this low. This is like a slap in the face.
48) Mikko Illonen - Josh what do you think of this ranking by Bolton, not showing much confidence in his match play ability.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 2:25:20 GMT
Ok...will also go through the groups/ comment etc. A few points first... stroke play and match play...are different mindsets. One big point...A few guys thus far this year who maybe have not been getting the results we are used to from them...well if they are getting tons of bogeys (or worse), and are all over the place...well that is a big issue. However...If they have three good rounds but that one poor one...OR even...maybe 15 or 16 strong holes...but two or three holes are what tarnish the round...that is quite different...and in MATCH PLAY..This hurts you less. You smack it in the water on a hole...get double bogey...meanwhile the other guy gets an eagle...you are in a four stroke hole that you likely spend all day playing catchup. In Match play...next hole you go for it..get a birdie...they get a par...he'll you are back to even. Also...you are not watching scoreboards..All you have to see and concentrate on is the player next to you...which often dictates things. He smacks it in the woods...well..maybe you put that driver back and conservatively hit a one iron. It just is a different philosophy...and a couple of the true alpha dogs if this was the usual stroke play..are NOT quite the same type of big favorites in match play...so this is interesting.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 3:17:21 GMT
Ok....my predictions/analysis: GROUP ONE: McIlroy/Horschel/Snedeker/Dufner. . Well...This is not easy for Rory...If any of the other three were playing well of late it would be even more iffy for him. Since they are not...I think Rory survives the group...Snedeker maybe giving the biggest challenge. GROUP TWO: Spieth/Westwood/Every/Ilonen. . OK...Spieth certainly is a big favorite here. Add he is rested, and that in college he has some familiarity to match play. He also was one of the brighter spots for the U.S. Ryder Cup last year. Westwood is a seasoned veteran...but is a so-so match play guy....could give trouble if he is on that day. Same with Ilonen. If either was in a different group...we might have enough to go with them...but the all around game and present form Spieth currently is displaying...it just is hard to not select him. That said, Eric...Mikko COULD very well win his other two matches..which would get you more points. I don't expect much from Every. . GROUP THREE: Stenson/Haas/Todd/Senden. Lot of good ball striking in this group. That could make things interesting. Haas is better for stroke play...His match play history is quite poor. Anything can happen... but really he would need almost the complete opposite to happen from his entire career thus far. Stenson has won this event...was runner up in October at Volo World Match Play...and his form has been great. Has two rounds over par total for the year...and each was just one over par...When he was recovering from the flu. Helped to win Ryder Cup last year...just like with Rory and Jordan...There just is too much there...and not enough from the others to predict the upset...of course anyone can win... but Stenson not advancing would be a disappointment...He SHOULD. . GROUP FOUR : Watson/Oosthuizen/Bradley/Jimenez . This is a very interesting group. Bobby is not a poor match play player...but it also is not his ideal game. He is the type who can overpower a hole with an eagle...but then a wayward shot...still usually will take a solid guy to beat him. Thing is..A healthy Oyster IS just that...and Bradley can as well. Oyster and Bradley both can smack it, as well...so they will not be as much of a disadvantage lengthwise as say a guy like Luke Donald if he were playing in this group. Even Jimenez is nobody to be trifled with. Where's some groups likely will have a guy as the true fourth guy...I could see this group being jumbled where nobody us 3-0...or 0-3. Also...just like the World Cup group stage where timing can be everything... Bobby vs. Oyster in the third day match could be one of the best of the Friday matches. I am going with Bubba...but this could come down even to sudden death...and Oyster or Keegan here would not be much of a surprise...One of the more iffy groups in my opinion. Will continue in next post.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 4:15:31 GMT
Ok...picks thus far: 1) McIlroy / 2) Spieth / 3) Stenson / 4) Watson (barely)... . Ok...things true to firm thus far...Although nothing too easy for Henrik...Rory...and especially Bubba. Jordan cannot expect to coast..but I see a tad less stress for him in the group stage. We move on: .GROUP FIVE: Furyk/Kaymer/Jaidee/Coetzee....Furyk is an average Match Play guy...and I do not know how this course plays for him. Kaymer is not "on" right now...but is streaky, and is in at least a group he can perhaps gain some confidence back. Jaidee is a solid player...but just seems to not be the same player over here. Coetzee...This could be a wild card...He is a damp strong player...and he did well last year. He could even win this group. Hell...I have been pretty conservative...and no there always are a few surprises...This is a group with no real dynamic alphas like some of the others...hell I will pick Coetzee...This group could possibly be a sudden death case with three 2-1 teams. GROUP SIX: Rose/Palmer/Lahiri/Leishman. Hmmm...This might LOOK easy...but Rose is a so-so match play guy. Even with him being back in prime form overall...If he had other challengers...He would be riper to be upset. Palmer will give it a good run... but Rose SOLID at least get to the Sweet Sixteen out of this group. LEISHMAN...is a wild card...but if Rose can weather that first match --- then that should be most of the wind out of the sails. Lahiri is a fun, young player...but hard to see him getting a result here...maybe can get a win somehow...cannot see more than that. So..going Rose here. GROUP SEVEN: Day/ZJohnson/Grace/Hoffman. Well....similar theme...Zachary is always a guy who when hot can play almost with anyone...Hoffman has his moments...Grace has had much success...but Day not only is playing well...but has become one of...If not the best at this particular format. HE is a grinder by nature...He is tenacious if he slips behind in this format..and hardly has any weaknesses. When he gets a bogey...He often comes back right away with a birdie. Like so many of the best...He usually only has a couple poor holes a round. In stroke play...it could be a costly double bogey that prevents a title..here it is but one hole...that he likely will be anxious to make up the next hole. He is a true bulldog mentality in this format...14-3 overall...defending champ...third place the year before...other similar events. It just will take great play from the others. Day's length...especially at times when being aggressive should pay off...should also pay off with this group. It will not be a stroll in the park...but like most of the other top seeds in the groups...He is the strongest and the one to beat. GROUP EIGHT: DJ/ Dubuisson/ Schwartzel/ Jones. As much as this might seem like I am favoring players..and going against others...I am doing this for how I truly feel things could go. DJ..for all the ways Big Nose can be as impressive as anyone...we also know what happens often when we actually EXPECT something from him...often in huge events. Add that the man thus far has been AWFUL in match play...and you have two strong internationals...One last year's runner up, and also a Ryder Cup member of the winning team last year...The other a Masters winner, and strong overall pkayer...This is ripe for upset. ADD Jones who has his own bit of gutsy play...This will be a dog-fight. DJ is playing well...and Dubuisson and Schwartzel are not yet on their complete form, so that helps DJ a bit. However...As I stressed before...different types of being "off". Dubuisson has has a couple nagging injuries and illnesses...but his rounds have been mainly strong...just that one poor one to the three solid....or the three poor holes to the 15 solid. Add that like Day...Polter...Reed...etc. who know how to scramble....grind...and also at times when to go for naught in this format...This could be just what V-Dub ordered. Same for Schwartzel. Dubuisson also has an outstanding short game...and no that is DJ'S weakness. DJ will need to rely on those iron shots...because if it comes down to around the greens... V-Dub...and Schwartzel (although not as sharp currently as usual) will have the slight advantage...As will even Jones. I am going with Dubuisson...but this will be one the groups to watch most....even Jones...any of the four from this group would not be a huge surprise.
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Post by Annihilation Nation on Apr 28, 2015 4:25:28 GMT
Awsome analysis so far Josh. I look forward to reading the rest of your comments tomorrow.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 5:19:40 GMT
Ok... McIlroy/Spieth/Stenson/Watson/Coetzee/Rose/Day/Dubuisson. . .. .GROUP NINE. Scott/Kirk/Casey/Molinari. Interesting group. Not to dismiss Kirk...but other than one recent tourney he has been virtually invisible thus far this year. Casey has been strong,and has solid match play history. He is a popular choice to come through this group...but I still say Scott does...He has more grit than given credit...and I think he is due to come back a bit here...at the very least getting through this group. GROUP TEN : Garcia/ Donaldson / Wiesberger/Fleetwood. All European group...familiarity...interesting. Fleetwood is an awful putter...just is difficult seeing much success here. Sergio is the favorite...but Donaldson-Wiesberger winner will have a prime opportunity here. Wiesberger playing well ever where now...even here...tempting...but going Sergio. To me...Three matches SHOULD favor the stronger players...so in many ways...I expect LESS upsets. So..going Sergio...but it will not be easy...and if he is off...could cost him. GROUP ELEVEN : Walker/Poulter/Simpson/Woodland. Well...Walker was the unlucky one...getting Poulter was bad enough...getting Simpson and Woodland as well didn't help anything. Webb is not putting well...not on...but in this format he can make waves. Woodland is a bit unlucky here...perhaps another group he could have a bit more elbow room....This group he will have to be almost perfect. In the end...This SHOULD come down to Walker and Poulter...another must see Friday match. I go Poulter here...In his niche...plus he is playing well all-around now. This is a chance to add another plume in his Match Play hat. GROUP TWELVE: Holmes/Koepka/Henley/Warren. Warren is a solid player... but this just seems a lot to ask for here...watch him for the British Open though. I know many like Henley...but the only way he wins is if his putter is totally on. He is not consistent enough in the other areas. While he is in a group where he more of a chance...still see this primarily as Holmes and Koepka. I do not know how healthy Koepka is...but even if..I give Holmes the edge. He has been so solid all year...plus he likes match play. GROUP THIRTEEN: Fowler/McDowell/Lowry/English Interesting group...nobody in this group playing that well... Fowler McDowell on Friday could be one of those main matches...Lowry a Wild card...As English. This is a toss up group...any could win...ripe for possible Sudden Death scenerio...going with Fowler...think MAYBE...He is close to getting back on form... GROUP FOURTEEN: Kuchar/Mahan/Gallachar/Martin . While Mahan is in his element in this format...Kuchar is the one who has played at least somewhat decently all year. Gallachar was on the Ryder Cup team that won last year...but with Kuchar and Mahan in this group, both strong match play guys...hard to expect much. Same with Martin. Kuchar playing Mahan Friday should be key...just expect Kuchar to win. GROUP FIFTEEN: Reed/Moore/Willett/Sullivan. No disrespect to a Willett or a Sullivan who both are having wonderful seasons and are names to be aware of...but not this week, in my opinion. Reed...The guy is a prick...but hard to not like in this group...except there is Moore. This could be an intense clash on Friday. Moore is always underappreciated..and a very good Match Play guy...so is Reed. GOING with Reed... so if I am wrong, at least I am very happy. GROUP SIXTEEN: Matsuyama/Na/Luiten/Levy. I like Levy a lot...and Na is another, like Moore who is underappreciated...but really Hideki got about as nice a draw as you get in this thing, and for him to not come out of this group would be a huge disappointment.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 5:45:18 GMT
Sorry bunched together...typing this on phone: so...next round: .McIlroy/Matsuyama. You hear about some possible nifty match ups in Round of 16...This I think is a bit underrated...This is a swell matchup. I love Mats...could very well win this..but Rory and his timely putting give him a slight win late in the round. SPIETH-REED - Obvious...big TV here for many...looking for Jordan to shut fat jowl face up. STENSON-KUCHAR This is tough...but Stenson is better iron player...and he was also one of just three players to not three putt at Augusta... Stenson in a tighter one. WATSON-FOWLER ...Bubba...If it is Oostey...would have Oostey winning....If Bradey...would be close. These two groups...Both are so iffy in my opinion...so this might be where I am most baffled...but we go Bubba here. COETZEE-HOLMES going Holmes here...just is solid...already COeTZEE a longer shot just getting out of group. ROSE-POULTER. As I said...Rose is only a so - so match play guy...and Poulter is familiar with him...think Poults will like this matchup...Poulter. DAY- GARCIA Very interesting matchup...Some similarities...In the end...Day more a grinder.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 6:01:12 GMT
Oops... DUBUISSON-SCOTT...going with Scott...interesting matchup though. ...............................................SO...down to eight: McIlroy-Scott... McIlroy in a close one...Scott certainly could win this...just have a feeling...and Scott just not quite completely there. Spieth-Day: Going Day here...again...think he will grind and want it more. Stenson-Poulter: Wow...tough...going Poults...more like Day...wanting it just a tad more. I also wonder if Stenson will have things catch up to him. After Masters he had a stomach flu...between two illnesses he has lost some weight. In the latter stages of this tourney...think this might drain him a bit...at least enough for Poulter to take advantage. WATSON - Holmes. HOLMES....similar games...and think Bubba just makes a mistake or two. I think Holmes just has his draw in general from the start working potentially well for him.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 6:07:39 GMT
Final Four: McIlroy-Holmes ..intriguing matchup... Day - Poulter..... This was the third place game 2013...won by Day. FINAL : Holmes -Day. Champion : Jason Day....2ND J.B.Holmes...3rd Roy McIlroy. 4th Ian Poulter
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Post by Annihilation Nation on Apr 28, 2015 12:23:35 GMT
OMG did you type this whole thing up on your cell phone.
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 14:35:07 GMT
Yes... lol
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Post by greenjacksixpack on Apr 28, 2015 14:42:23 GMT
I do think if he is on his game...between his draw...and maybe a bit of extra luck after group stage...Hideki could go far... depends how Rory is playing as well...really do think Rory-Hideki would be a blast to watch.
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Post by Annihilation Nation on Apr 29, 2015 1:24:56 GMT
www.pgatour.com/tour-insider/2015/04/28/match-play-mentality.htmlI posted an interesting article that talks about Jason Day and his refusal in match play events to concede fairly easy putts. When it comes to conceding putts I completely agree with Jason Day. I don't think a putt outside of 6 inches should ever be conceded in a match play event. I think Day actually used the strategy of not conceding putts to get under the skin of his opponent a bit. Why? is my question. No one should ever just allow an opponent a freebie. Do defenses in the NFL allow an opponent a free entry from the one foot line. I don't think so. As a matter of fact the last superbowl was decided by a play that was made by the defense from the one yard line. Golf is about the short game and especially putting. putts of 1 to 3 feet can very easily be missed even for a pro golfer. I think the phenomenon of conceding putts in match play is alot like a player bunting for a base hit in baseball to break up a no hitter. This is competition and in competition all competitors should play to win at all times. How did golf ever get to the point of considering a player ungentlemenly if he/she refuses to concede short putts.
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